S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 16/9/26

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7550/40

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7762/86 SUP 7538/46

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7635/25

DAILY RANGE RES 7735 SUP 7629

2 SIGMA RES 7805 SUP 7558

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7609 RES 7695

2 SIGMA RANGE SUP 7522 RES 7737

GAMMA FLIP 7673

DELTA FLIP 7724

PUT WALLS 7701/ 7620

CALL WALLS 7759 / 7780.15

UNFILLED GAPS 7620 - 7541

DAILY STRUCTURE - BALANCE - 7719/7585

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7717

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.3  (VVIX / VIX) 5.39 - 5.0–6.0: Normal tension as traders hedge volatility while VIX remains subdued. Near 5 or lower suggests complacency; above 7 signals high fear and aggressive future volatility pricing.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM  DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM WBBZ TARGET

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.20 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

THE TAKE: OIL & YIELDS DOMINATE TAPE INTO HIGH-STAKES FED MEETING

US equity benchmarks extended losses for another session as oil and rates continued to dictate macro sentiment ahead of the September 16 FOMC rate decision (2:00 PM ET). Market odds for a 25 bps rate hike sit at >90%, with rates markets now pricing in two full hikes by year-end 2026.

The US 10-Year yield closed above 5.0% (5.0081%), holding levels not seen consistently since 2023. Meanwhile, WTI Crude surged +4.43% to $105.90/bbl, driven by compounding supply disruptions: Saudi Arabia suspending Yanbu shipments and canceling September loadings, ongoing Libyan production halts, and escalating Houthi activity in the Red Sea. Energy equities (GSXUENRG) squeezed +2.7%, exerting severe pressure on consumer discretionary names and broader market breadth (344 S&P 500 constituents closed lower).

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,585.00 (-0.45%) | VIX up +58 bps to 17.2 | MOC $1.45B to SELL | Weak market breadth with 344 names in the red

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 28,937.00 (-0.65%) | Hardware/Semis stabilized following CEO pushback | Megacap tech mostly lower; AMZN down 6 of last 7 sessions

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,870.00 (-0.76%) | Multi-session underperformance as rate-sensitive small-caps face 5%+ yields

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 52,093.00 (-0.63%) | Dragged down by fuel-sensitive cyclicals and consumer pressure

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 5.0081% (+2.1 bps) | Sustained move >5.0% | Yield curve pricing hawkish FOMC & SEP path

  • WTI Crude: Price at $105.90 (+4.43%) | Breaches $105 on Saudi/Libya/Houthi supply halts | Major inflation friction for central banks

  • Gold: Price at $4,295.00 (-0.11%) | Holding near $4,300 as DXY firms (+26 bps to 99.65) | Consolidation into rate decision

  • Bitcoin: Price at $75,806.00 (-4.15%) | Risk-off de-leveraging ahead of Fed | Pulled back alongside high-beta assets

AI CAPEX DEBATE & EXECUTIVE PUSHBACK

  • Hardware Stabilization: Following the violent rotation out of hardware earlier in the week, the AI trade showed signs of stabilization despite continued de-grossing flows.

  • CEO Commentary Counter-Narrative:

    • NVIDIA (NVDA): CEO Jensen Huang directly pushed back against model-pacing concerns, emphasizing that safety and rapid innovation can co-exist without decelerating infrastructure buildouts.

    • Broadcom (AVGO): CEO similarly downplayed fears that a temporary pause in frontier model scale would impact custom silicon or datacenter semi demand.

  • Megacap Tech: Mostly lower across the board, with Amazon (AMZN) continuing to lag as a notable underperformer (down in 6 of the last 7 trading sessions).

DESK FLOWS & INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

  • Desk Activity (3/10 Rating): Floor activity remained light heading into the FOMC meeting, finishing -740 bps better for sale.

  • Asset Managers (Long Onlys): Finished -$454M better for sale, with supply concentrated in macro ETF products and tech, against light buying demand in Communication Services, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary.

  • Hedge Funds: Finished relatively flat on the day, showing sell supply in Consumer Discretionary and Financials, offset by small net demand in Consumer Staples and macro products.